Per the syllabus, students are required to draft the foundation of an Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) paper that will comprise 25% of the final course grade. Each student will take a different substantive issue. The ACH process is explained in Heuer, Ch. 8; however, please note I am only asking for the following in this paper: State a clear research question, explaining why your topic is relevant and important Propose at least four ALTERNATIVE COMPETING hypotheses To be “alternative” and “competing” hypotheses, the hypotheses should be mutually exclusive (this is a general principle, there is room for some overlap) Explain why your hypotheses are the most likely hypotheses Identify what type of information, that could be reasonably discovered, would be needed to test each hypothesis By “reasonably discovered,” I mean data that an intelligence agency might reasonably have access to. Data on Kim Jong-Un’s top level security discussions is not reasonably discoverable; data on the exact nuclear plans of Iran’s Supreme Leader is not reasonably discoverable. With this, address DIAGNOSTICITY – that is, per the ACH method, your focus should be on disconfirming evidence, given that confirming evidence may be consistent with multiple hypotheses Identify where such data might realistically be found Note that I am NOT asking you to execute the ACH paper by finding evidence, compiling an ACH chart, and offering a conclusion. Given the time and resource constraints we face in this class, I would rather have you focus on a high-quality foundation than try to rush through the full execution and deliver a lesser-quality full paper. Students should choose their own topic; however, students must obtain written approval from the instructor. An XXXXX from the instructor noting approval is sufficient; however, students should print out a copy of such so as to be able to verify approval. This XXXXX should be appended to the final paper. Topics should be SELECTED AND APPROVED by Aug. 27 to 1) ensure you get the topic you want, and 2) enable sufficient time for research. If you submit your topic on Aug 27, you risk not getting approval and thereby missing the deadline. Failure to obtain approval of your topic by Aug. 28 will result in a 10 point penalty on the final paper. Format: The paper must be typed, double-spaced, in twelve-point Times New Roman font, with one inch margins. Do not place additional space between paragraphs. Use of headings and subheadings within the paper is highly recommended. Papers are anticipated to be approximately 6-8 pages in length, with a limit of no more than 10 pages, exclusive of title page, bibliography, and notes. Please note that quality is more important than volume. Hand-written papers are not acceptable. Papers must be submitted in MS Word format (Turn-it-In cannot handle Pages format; PDF format makes it hard for me to edit). Please include your surname in the title of the file you upload to Canvas. Citat (Administration. The exchange of contact information is prohibited on the platform. If you are trying to send the project details, reach out to our 24/7 support for assistance.)
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