ASSIGNMENT INSTRUCTIONS:
considered a PwC survey and the hybrid forms of gut decision-making and data-driven analysis. As you prepare for this week’s Discussion, will you think outside the box as to the assembly of a toolbox and draw upon multiple approaches, or will you stay within the comfort zone of your preferred decision-making style? Focus on your assessment of the validity of using probability techniques as an alternative, or in addition to, gut reactions for assessing uncertainty. Remember, software and data scientist experts with strong backgrounds in statistics do the programming. As a current and future manager and leader, you will drive the assumptions and interpretations of output as a consumer of data.
To prepare for this Discussion, build your toolbox of various tools and methods for problem-solving and decision-making. Address the following questions:
What five tools would you include for decision-making related to your identified management problem or opportunity? Evaluate the utility of those tools with references to the literature.
What typical tools would you likely exclude for decision-making related to your identified management problem or opportunity? Evaluate the utility of those tools with references to the literature.
Alaoui, Y. L., Tkiouat, M. (2018, April). Developing a decision-making support tool for planning customer satisfaction strategies in the microfinance industry. Links to an external site. Paper presented at the 2018 International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Computer Vision (ISCV), Fez, Morocco. doi:10.1109/ISACV.2018.8354054 Links to an external site.
Gerstein, D. M., Kallimani, J. G., Mayer, L. A., Meshkat, L., Osburg, J., Davis, P., Cignarella, B., & Grammich, C. A. (2016). Developing a risk assessment methodology for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Links to an external site. (Research Report No. 1537). Retrieved from RAND Corporation website: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1500/RR1537/RAND_RR1537.pdf Links to an external site.
Galvez, D., Enjolras, M., Camargo, M., Boly, V., & Claire, J. (2018). Firm readiness level for innovation projects: A new decision-making tool for innovation managers Links to an external site. Administrative Sciences, 8(1), 6. doi:10.3390/admsci8010006 Links to an external site.
Ishizaka, A., & Siraj, S. (2018). Are multi-criteria decision-making tools useful? An experimental comparative study of three methods Links to an external site. European Journal of Operational Research, 264(2), 462–471. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2017.05.041 Links to an external site.
Kaliszewski, I., & Samuelson, D. A. (2017, June). Models that are never wrong Links to an external site. ORMS Today, 44(3), 24–27. Links to an external site.
Kulak, O., Genç, A., & Taner, M. E. (2018). A decision-making tool considering risk assessment of sub-contracting agents for an air cargo shipment planning problem Links to an external site. Journal of Air Transport Management, 69, 123–136. doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.02.005 Links to an external site.
Poláček, T. (2017). Sensitive analysis as a tool for decision-making within the reorganization of insolvent company Links to an external site. Trendy Ekonomiky A Managementu, 11(28), 63–71. doi:10.13164/trends.2017.28.63 Links to an external site.
Schraagen, J. M. (2008). Naturalistic decision-making and misrecognition Links to an external site. Aldershot, England: CRC Press. Links to an external site.
Vriens, D., & Achterbergh, J. (2015). Tools for supporting responsible decision-making? Links to an external site. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 32(3), 312–329. doi:10.1002/sres.2246 Links to an external site.
Zaraté, P. (2013). Tools for collaborative decision-making. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
HOW TO WORK ON THIS ASSIGNMENT (EXAMPLE ESSAY / DRAFT)
Making decisions is a crucial aspect of your job as a manager or leader, thus it’s crucial to have a toolbox full of different tools and techniques for doing so. I’ll name five tools in this essay that I would use to help me make decisions about the management opportunity or problem I’ve found, and I’ll assess their value using academic sources. Typical techniques that I would probably avoid using when making decisions about my identified management challenge or opportunity will also be identified, and their usefulness will be assessed with references to the literature.
The creation of a new product for the business has been highlighted as a management opportunity or difficulty. The following five items would be in my toolbox:
strategies for making decisions based on several factors, such as cost, quality, and customer satisfaction, include multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) strategies. The applicability of MCDM approaches for decision-making in complicated settings with numerous criteria has been discovered by Ishizaka and Siraj (2018).
Methodology for risk assessment: A methodology for risk assessment can assist in locating and examining potential risks connected to the creation of a new product. For the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Gerstein et al. (2016) created a risk assessment technique and discovered that it might be useful for identifying and prioritizing hazards as well as creating risk mitigation plans.
Sensitive analysis: Sensitive analysis can be used to determine how changes in parameters or assumptions will affect a decision’s outcome. According to Poláek (2017), sensitivity analysis can help make decisions when there is uncertainty and variability.
Naturalistic decision-making: Understanding how professionals make decisions in practical settings can be aided by naturalistic decision-making. Schraagen (2008) discovered that naturalistic decision-making can shed light on the thought processes and methods used by experts.
Collaborative decision-making tools: These tools can aid in fostering collaboration and communication among team members and stakeholders. According to Zaraté (2013), collaborative decision-making technologies can raise stakeholder engagement and improve the quality of decisions.
On the other hand, the typical tools that I would avoid using while making decisions on the management opportunity or problem that I have found are:
Simple heuristics: Simple heuristics are frequently employed as a decision-making shortcut, although they may result in biased and unfavorable choices. In complex scenarios, Kaliszewski and Samuelson (2017) discovered that straightforward heuristics can be deceptive and untrustworthy.
When making decisions, intuition is frequently characterized as a gut feeling or instinct, but it can also be influenced by biases and emotions. Alaoui and Tkiouat (2018) discovered that making decisions only based on intuition might be arbitrary and inconsistent.
Trial and error is a typical strategy for making decisions, although it can be time-consuming and ineffective. Trial and error, according to Galvez et al. (2018), might result in poor choices and slow down the development process.
In conclusion, multi-criteria decision-making approaches, risk assessment methodology, sensitivity analysis, naturalistic decision-making, and collaborative decision-making tools are the five tools I would put in my toolbox for decision-making connected to producing a new product. Simple heuristics, intuition, and trial-and-error methods should be avoided since they can result in skewed, subjective, and ineffective conclusions. I may increase the effectiveness of decision-making and raise the standard of decisions by utilizing several tools and techniques.
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