Write a paper that provides President Obama with an assessment of the likelihood

Write a paper that provides President Obama with an assessment of the likelihood that Osama Bin Ladin was in Abbottabad, how would you go about it? What processes and measures would you use, what form would the results take, and how would you convey the results?
Place probability assessments on the information when providing it to President Obama.
Use the following references: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rbill-mcraven-and-michael-morell-raid-osama-bin-ladens-compound/
https://www-tandfonline-com.proxy1.library.jhu.edu/doi/pdf/10.1080/02684527.2014.885202?needAccess=true