https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/columns-blogs/5-steps-toward-better-decisions-in-2021

Ever notice that some people have a knack for making the right decisions? Do you wonder if they are lucky, smart or intuitive? Or a combination of the three? Ever notice that other people seem to make bad decisions consistently? Do you wonder why they cannot catch a break?

I was thinking about these questions as I finished former President Obama’s new memoir, A Promised Land, in which he shares his perspective on the 2008 election and the first three years of his presidency. Something Obama wrote jumped off the page at me, something most readers may not have noticed: As president, he rarely had simple decisions to make. He was always dealing in probabilities.

It was the word “probabilities” that made me think about the process leaders use in decision-making. As leaders, we may not be required to make the consequential decisions of a U.S. president, but we are still making decisions that will have a big impact on organizations and people. Sometimes those decisions end up being wrong. Often that is because of probabilities.