Essentially it should be a short (roughly 10 – 12 page) paper in which you will

Essentially it should be a short (roughly 10 – 12 page) paper in which you will compile the most recent two years of particular macro and financial data series that will proxy for the key variables in the macro-model of the course, for a country of your choice (subject to my approval). And then most importantly the paper presents graphical analysis of the data utilizing the basic analytical model of the course, and provides discussion of the state of the country’s macroeconomic conditions with particular reference to the macroeconomic trends and risks facing the country, as of that point in time. I wanted to provide you with some guidance about how to write/package your country memorandum/paper. To this end, kindly note that I’ve attached to this email two Sample Papers taken from a previous SAIS class that I taught in DC. The idea is to write something similar (and similar in structure) to what you see in these two papers. The principal difference is that the Sample Papers cover a 5-year analysis period whereas your memo will only span 1 year. So I expect your country memos will be much shorter than the sample papers (i.e., I expect your memos will be no more than 6-8 pages long, excluding graphs and tables). However I still expect the following sections to appear there, just as they appear in the attached Sample Papers: INTRODUCTION: (1 – 2 paragraphs broadly characterizing the economy of the country you are analyzing in the particular year you are studying). Please keep this short and FOCUS ON THE ECONOMICS. MACROECONOMIC SUMMARY: 1 – 2 PAGES describing in more substantial detail what were the key economic and financial events or shocks or trends that were particularly important to the country you are studying in the year that you are analyzing. Here you can bring in material from background papers (e.g., IMF Article IV Reports). To see what this section might look like, look at the attached Sample Papers both of which have a whole section titled “Macroeconomic Summary”. The Sample Papers cover an entire 5-year span and are thus much longer and more substantial that what is required for your memo. You are to write up a similar section for your country, but just for the one year that you are writing about. It is tempting here to include in this section many things that sound or seem significant in some respects (e.g., politics) and yes, one can include them. But once again for emphasis– FOCUS ON THE ECONOMICS of the year in question. Even more specifically, concentrate on the macroeconomic/financial/exchange rate issues that your economy faced in the year under study. BOP AND MACRO DATA TABLES: Both of these are required. Insert these either at the end of the Macroeconomic Summary section or just before the next section (Economic Analysis). This data SHOULD IDEALLY CONSIST OF ALL THE DATA SERIES that appear in the Excel Workshop Data Template that we used in our two Country Memo Workshops (see our Course Blackboard site for the folder containing all the Workshop files). You should have at least two years worth of this (annual) data– data for the year under study and data for the year before that. IF THE BOP AND MACRO DATA TABLES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY INCOMPLETE– either in terms of missing data series or missing years– OR IF THEY ARE SUBSTANTIALLY INCORRECT (e.g., you failed to properly “deflate” nominal GDP and related series to get them in “real terms”, as required) then significant point deductions to your memo should be expected. If you are missing one or two data series, then this may amount to just a minor deduction. Also, ideally the year under study should be the most recent year for which you can get (mostly) complete data. To encourage people to look at more recent history I downgrade memos that analyze time periods that are more than two years in the past. So ideally your analytical year for this memo should be either 2019 or 2020. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: 3 – 5 PAGES, excluding graphs. Just like the Sample Papers, begin this section by indicating that you will use the Asset-Markets and DD-AA open economy macroeconomic models. You don’t have to go into a detailed description of these models for your country memo. Just mention these models at the start of this section just so that the memo reads well. Spend most of your space here presenting your model-based analysis that best matches the data that you put together in (3) above. THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT SECTION OF YOUR COUNTRY MEMO and I will be most critical of how you use the Asset-Markets and DD-AA models to match or explain the data that appear in your data tables. You should refer to the discussion that we had in the Second Country Memo Workshop (https://jh.zoom.us/rec/share/7Mst05VXAy0UBAnBsOTPDpY-uZbyu2O_FZ4JinUdo03IwXwWIiqdTbswt8rwafPq.66I9PDAyrL2nraZg Passcode: h.@Ru.9V) Also look carefully and closely at what is done in the attached Sample Papers’ Economic Analysis sections. There you can see in more detail how these former SAIS students used the Asset-Markets and DD-AA Models to analyze data and events. They did this analysis not just for one year but for several sub-periods or years; for your memo I require similar analysis only for one year. Even if you are producing just one year’s analysis I still expect cleanly executed and well-explained or annotated/labelled graphs. See the Sample Papers for examples. Hand-sketched graphs are acceptable, but they need to be drawn cleanly, and as professionally as possible. (Just aside, the Sample Papers feature a third curve in their analysis called the “XX Curve”; you do not need to use this for your analysis). CONCLUSION: This should be just 2 – 3 paragraphs reiterating key points of the macroeconomic summary and economic analysis section. Policy proposals or recommendations are not required, but can be included if you want to include them but be sure to stick to macroeconomic/financial aspects and not bring in other considerations that are beyond the scope of this memo. REFERENCES: Don’t forget to list your sources of background information and data at the end of your memo. Also, make sure that if you made reference to these articles/sources inside the main body of your memo, that you included in your text a citation to the corresponding reference in this section.